What Diplomatic Options Still Exist For Syria?

In Syria, a column of tanks is said to be moving on the town of Jisr al-Shughour in the north, near the Turkish border. And residents fear an even more brutal crackdown there. Monday, the Syrian government claimed that more than 120 security forces were killed in the town by what it called "armed gangs." But locals and opposition groups say that's not true. They say there was a mutiny within the army: that some soldiers defected to defend the town ? and were killed by government loyalists. As the bloodshed in Syria continues, Melissa Block talks with Andrew Tabler, Next Generation Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

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MELISSA BLOCK, host:

In Syria, a column of tanks is said to be moving on the town of Jisr al-Shughour in the north, near the Turkish border. And residents fear an even more brutal crackdown there. Yesterday, the Syrian government claimed that more than 120 security forces were killed in the town by what it called armed gangs. But locals and opposition groups say that's not true. They say there was a mutiny within the army that some soldiers defected to defend the town and were killed by government loyalists.

We're going to talk now about the pressure that is and isn't being brought to bear on the Syrian regime. I'm joined by Andrew Tabler with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Welcome to the program.

Mr. ANDREW TABLER (Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy): Thanks very much.

BLOCK: There have been sanctions by the United States, by the European Union, but they have not gotten action through the U.N., not even a statement of condemnation. Why not?

Mr. TABLER: Because Security Council action is being blocked by Russia and China up to this point, as well as resistance from India and Lebanon. Russia often supports Syria's position. Although whether it will to this degree in the face of increasing violence and especially videos of children being tortured remains to be seen.

BLOCK: It's interesting if you look at U.S. statements on the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, there's not been a definitive call for him to resign. The formulation from Secretary of State Clinton and President Obama has been if President Assad does not end the violence and start meaningful reform, then he needs to get out of the way. Why not stronger? Why not just say it's time for him to go?

Mr. TABLER: I think it's hard to assess what the tipping point of the Assad regime exactly is, and I don't think that they believe that he's reached that. However, I think it is a universal opinion that the Assad regime is on a downward trajectory, and increasingly, we see a lot more bloodshed. And so I think that's why the administration has been a little cautious until now.

BLOCK: There is a U.S. ambassador in Damascus, Robert Ford. Does he have any pull with Syrian authorities? It's unclear whether he's even been able to meet with any of the top Syrian government officials.

Mr. TABLER: Since President Assad was officially sanctioned by the United States on May 19th under Treasury Department designations, Ambassador Ford has not been able to meet with senior Syrian officials. However, the emissary is from - senior officials have been visiting with Robert Ford, but he's not just simply there to engage with the regime. He's also there to talk with the opposition as well, and so I think that his role has changed and will continue to change over time.

BLOCK: Based on what you know of President Assad and his thinking, would he not be looking at the course of the past three months and thinking no one in the international community seems to have raised much of a hand against me and I can do what I want with impunity?

Mr. TABLER: I think that the United States has made significant changes in its policy. For example, now we have more Syrian government officials designated for human rights abuses than we do for Syria's regional behavior. And also, in terms of the list of issues with Syria, now human rights is first and foremost. But, yes, President Assad sees the international community standing by while he kills his own people, and I think that's because he realizes he doesn't have to change his policies until now.

BLOCK: What would it take for that to happen?

Mr. TABLER: The primary tools that the international community has on Syria are threefold. One are sanctions. Second, multilateral pressure works on Syria. The third primary tool and one that has not been put on the table until now has been military force. It's not necessarily military strikes like we see in Libya. We could be looking at no-fly zones. We could be looking at other kinds of intervention. But, again, I think that's not on the table at the moment.

BLOCK: Not on the table. And if the U.N. Security Council can't even pass a resolution of condemnation, it doesn't seem very likely that they would pass a resolution authorizing anything like you're describing.

Mr. TABLER: That's true, but we are in the very early stage of this conflict. The fall, the degradation of the Assad regime is not going to look like the fall of the regime in Cairo or in Tunisia. It is going to be a much slower, bloodier, more sectarian type of conflict, and I think that's why the administration has been very careful not to get out in front of the protesters, and instead to let events on the ground dictate policy.

BLOCK: Andrew Tabler, thanks for coming in.

Mr. TABLER: Thanks very much.

BLOCK: Andrew Tabler is a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. His forthcoming book is titled "In the Lion's Den: An Eyewitness Account of Washington's Battle with Syria."

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Source: http://www.npr.org/2011/06/07/137042264/what-diplomatic-options-still-exist-for-syria?ft=1&f=1004

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