U.S. and N.Korea to meet, analysts skeptical on progress (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) ? The United States and North Korea will meet on Monday and Tuesday in Geneva, the U.S. State Department said, but analysts were skeptical wider talks on ending the North's nuclear programs will resume any time soon.

The State Department stressed that it was looking for "seriousness of purpose" on the part of North Korea about curbing its nuclear ambitions and that it wanted Pyongyang to take steps to demonstrate this before any broader talks.

While State Department spokesman Mark Toner declined to lay these out, analysts cite three: improving North and South Korean relations; freezing North Korea's nuclear activities, including its uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon, and a moratorium on its nuclear and long-range missile tests.

"This is a continuation of the exploratory meetings to determine if North Korea is prepared to fulfill its commitments under the 2005 joint statement of the six-party talks and its ... international obligations as well as take concrete steps toward denuclearization," Toner told reporters.

The United States and North Korea last held such talks in late July.

Under the September 2005 deal, the North agreed to abandon its nuclear programs in exchange for economic and diplomatic incentives to be provided by other parties in the so-called six-party talks -- China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States. That agreement has since unraveled.

In an interview with Russian state news agency Itar-Tass, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il repeated his readiness to return to stalled nuclear talks "without any preconditions" -- a sign it will be difficult to get him to take steps before any eventual resumption of six-party talks.

A senior U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, suggested the U.S. desire for fresh bilateral talks was almost a stalling tactic designed to keep the North from provocations such as attacks on the South or additional nuclear or missile tests.

"Our concern is that if we don't engage that could result in miscalculations by the North Koreans as we've seen in the past," said the official. "Sometimes when engagement has been broken off it causes them to lash out in dangerous and unsettling ways."

"It's an exploratory phase and frankly it's a management strategy," the official added.

DAVIES TO SUCCEED BOSWORTH

The North has twice conducted nuclear tests and its nuclear expertise is seen by Washington as a direct threat to U.S. allies South Korea and Japan as well as to the security of the wider Asia-Pacific region.

Jack Pritchard, a former U.S. negotiator with North Korea now at the Korea Economic Institute, said the two sides seemed to be inching toward six-party talks but saw little chance of success should they resume, saying North Korea's succession issues preclude progress.

"The North Koreans are in absolutely no position to provide any elements of compromise or creativity at this point," he said. "Maybe X number of year down the road, but that's not in the cards right now."

With North Korea's Kim Jong-il preparing to be replaced by his son Kim Jong-un, there is unlikely to be consensus within its leadership on making any concessions to the United States.

In another succession, the State Department said veteran diplomat Glyn Davies, currently ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Commission in Vienna, will replace Stephen Bosworth, the part-time U.S. envoy for North Korea policy.

Bosworth, who has carried out his North Korea assignment while remaining dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, will lead the inter-agency U.S. delegation to the Geneva talks and then step down.

Davies will accompany him to those talks.

Obama came into office looking to pick up talks with the North on carrying out a 2005 multilateral aid-for-disarmament agreement.

However, after North Korea's second nuclear test took place in 2009, the Obama administration's enthusiasm for talks appeared to wane and it has adopted what is widely seen as a policy of "strategic patience" -- waiting to see if Pyongyang might be willing to come back to the negotiating table.

(Editing by Sandra Maler and Eric Walsh)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/nkorea/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111019/pl_nm/us_korea_north_usa

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